He got lucky
No doubt about it, Mr Macron was carried to victory in part by the winds of fortune.
A public scandal knocked out the initial frontrunner, centre-right candidate François Fillon; and Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon, already on the left fringe of the party, suffered a very public drubbing as traditional voters looked elsewhere.
"He was very lucky, because he was facing a situation that was completely unexpected," says Marc-Olivier Padis, of Paris-based think tank Terra Nova.
▶영리한 마크롱=마크롱의 ‘영리한 판단력’도 그를 대통령으로 이끌었다.
마크롱은 사회당에 남아 대선 후보가 될 수도 있었지만, 정부에서 몇 년 간 일하면서 정부에 대한 낮은 지지율을 보고 사회당이 대선에서 고전할 것임을 깨달았다.
그는 유럽의 다른 국가에서 일어난 정치 운동을 살펴봤다. 2014년 1월 창당된 스페인의 좌익 정당 ‘포데모스(Podemos, 우린 할 수 있다)’, 이탈리아에서 좌파와 우파라는 기존 정당 체계를 부정하며 2009년 창설된 정당 ‘오성운동(Five-Star Movement)’ 등을 보고 프랑스에는 이같이 게임을 바꾸는 정당이 없다는 사실을 알았다.
새로운 정치 운동을 구상한 그는 지난해 4월 사회당과 공화당의 당파 싸움으로 잊힌 중산층의 목소리를 듣겠다며 ‘앙 마르슈(전진)’를 창당했다.
He was canny
Luck doesn't tell the whole story.
Mr Macron could have gone for the Socialist ticket, but he realised after years in power and dismal public approval ratings the party's voice would always struggle to be heard.
"He was able to foresee there was an opportunity when nobody could," says Mr Padis.
Instead, he looked at political movements that have sprung up elsewhere in Europe - Podemos in Spain, Italy's Five-Star Movement - and saw that there was no equivalent game-changing political force in France.
In April 2016, he established his "people-powered" En Marche! (On the move) movement and four months later he stood down from President François Hollande's government.
▶새로운 시도 ‘그랑데 마르슈’=마크롱은 앙 마르슈를 창당한 이후 ‘그랑데 마르슈(Grande Marche, 큰 전진)’ 캠페인을 벌여 앙 마르슈 지지자들을 결집했다.
앙 마르슈의 자원봉사자들은 단지 전단지를 돌리는 것이 아니라 전국의 유권자 30만명을 찾아가고, 2만5000명을 대상으로 심층 인터뷰를 진행했다. 이를 통해 얻은 정보를 데이터베이스로 구축해 공약과 정책에 반영했다.
“마크롱은 버락 오바마 전 미국 대통령이 2008년 대선 캠페인에서 이용했던 풀뿌리 운동에서 아이디어를 얻었다”고 프랑스의 저널리스트 에밀리 슐타이스는 설명했다.
He tried something new in France
Having established En Marche, he took his cue from Barack Obama's grassroots 2008 US election campaign, says Paris-based freelance journalist Emily Schultheis.
His first major undertaking was the Grande Marche (Big March), when he mobilised his growing ranks of energised but inexperienced En Marche activists.
"The campaign used algorithms from a political firm they worked with - who by the way had volunteered for the Obama campaign in 2008 - to identify districts and neighbourhoods that were most representative of France as a whole," Ms Schultheis says.
"They sent out people to knock on 300,000 doors."
The volunteers didn't just hand out flyers - they carried out 25,000 in-depth interviews of about 15 minutes with voters across the country. That information was entered into a large database which helped inform campaign priorities and policies.
"It was a massive focus group for Macron in gauging the temperature of the country but also made sure that people had contact with his movement early on, making sure that volunteers knew how to go door to door. It was a training exercise that really laid the groundwork for what he did this year," Ms Schultheis explains.
And he capitalised on it.
Emmanuel Macron's rallies came across as youthful and fresh,
while his rival's message appeared more negative
▶긍정의 메시지=마크롱은 자신을 ‘또 하나의 올랑드’라고 지칭하는 비판을 피하면서 새로운 것을 간절히 원하는 국민들에게 공감을 이끌어냈다.
프랑스의 싱크탱크 테라노바의 마크 올리비에 파디스는 “프랑스에는 매우 비관적인 분위기가 있다. 그런데 마크롱은 매우 낙관적이고 긍정적인 메시지로 다가왔다”고 말했다.
그는 “마크롱은 젊고 에너지가 넘친다. 프랑스를 위해 무슨 일을 할지 설명하지는 않지만 사람들이 어떻게 기회를 얻을지를 설명한다”며 “그는 이런 종류의 메시지를 갖고 있는 유일한 사람이다”라고 평했다.
He had a positive message
Mr Macron's political persona appears beset with contradictions.
The "newcomer" who was President Hollande's protege and then economy minister; the ex-investment banker running a grassroots movement; the centrist with a radical programme to slash the public sector.
It was perfect ammunition for run-off rival Marine Le Pen, who said he was the candidate of the elite, not the novice he said he was.
"There is a very prevalent pessimistic mood in France - in a way, too pessimistic - and he comes with a very optimistic, positive message," says Marc-Olivier Padis.
"He's young, full of energy, and he's not explaining what he'll do for France but how people will get opportunities. He's the only one to have this kind of message."
▶르펜의 대항마=반(反) EU, 반 이민, 반 체제 등과 같은 르펜의 부정적인 메시지에 맞서 마크롱이 긍정적인 메시지를 전달한 것 또한 유효했다.
특히 지난 3일 르펜과의 양자 TV토론 이후 마크롱은 지지율을 높이며 승리를 굳혔다.
르펜은 비방과 인신공격으로 일관한 반면 마크롱은 해박한 지식과 날카로운 말솜씨로 르펜을 압도했다.
르몽드는 토론에 대해 “극우 세력을 상대로 정상적으로 토론한다는 것이 불가능하다는 사실을 보여줬다. 중상모략과 협박에 기대온 르펜의 진짜 얼굴이 드러났다”고 평했다.
He was up against Marine Le Pen
Up against his more optimistic tone, Marine Le Pen's message came across as negative - anti-immigration, anti-EU, anti-system.
Macron campaign rallies featured brightly lit arenas blaring with pop music, says Emily Schultheis, while Marine Le Pen's mass meetings involved protesters throwing bottles and flares, a heavy police presence, dark audience stands and an "angrier" undercurrent.
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